S-10CREWCAB.NET

Robert Roy Britt wrote: What is a Solar Maximum and What Happens?

The sun is always belching globs of its inner self into space, but every 11 years or so, changes in our star's magnetic field bring on an increase in sunspots, solar flares and events called coronal mass ejections. The result is a barrage of charged particles hurling toward Earth.

The peak in this cycle is called a "solar maximum" or "solar max."

Solar flares, one type of "space weather" associated with solar maximums, release tremendous amounts of energy, equivalent to a million hundred-megaton nuclear explosions, in just moments, scientists say.

Past disruptions

During the last maximum in 1989, a power surge triggered by solar energy damaged transformers of the Hydro-Quebec power system, leaving 6 million people in Canada and the northeast United States without power for more than nine hours. The event also knocked satellites out of orbit and disrupted radio communications.

Now, with a world that relies increasingly on satellites for daily communication, the risks are higher. Cellular telephones, pagers and the Global Position System -- used for airline navigation -- could be particularly vulnerable, experts say.

Other effects

Scientists increasingly suspect that solar cycles affect more than just satellites and power grids. An active sun, known to heat the Earth's outer atmosphere, may also alter our climate. Scientists say a small ice age from 1645 to 1715 corresponded to a time of reduced solar activity, and current rises in temperatures might be related to increased solar activity.

For northern residents, more solar radiation means an increase in the aurora borealis, or northern lights. The solar wind sends charged particles crashing into Earth's atmosphere every day. These particles are attracted to the poles by Earth's magnetosphere, where they excite molecules of nitrogen and oxygen and create the colorful displays of light. The displays should be more pronounced over the next two years.

Daily observations of sunspots began in 1749 at the Zurich Observatory, according to NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. Other observatories began contributing later, and continuous observations began in 1849.

The current 11-year cycle, the 23rd to have been measured by modern scientists, is called Solar Cycle #23.

Science@NASA wrote:Solar Storm Warning

March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived. Sunspots have all but vanished. Solar flares are nonexistent. The sun is utterly quiet.

Like the quiet before a storm.

This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958.

That was a solar maximum. The Space Age was just beginning: Sputnik was launched in Oct. 1957 and Explorer 1 (the first US satellite) in Jan. 1958. In 1958 you couldn't tell that a solar storm was underway by looking at the bars on your cell phone; cell phones didn't exist. Even so, people knew something big was happening when Northern Lights were sighted three times in Mexico. A similar maximum now would be noticed by its effect on cell phones, GPS, weather satellites and many other modern technologies.

Dikpati's prediction is unprecedented. In nearly-two centuries since the 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered, scientists have struggled to predict the size of future maxima—and failed. Solar maxima can be intense, as in 1958, or barely detectable, as in 1805, obeying no obvious pattern.

The key to the mystery, Dikpati realized years ago, is a conveyor belt on the sun.

We have something similar here on Earth—the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, popularized in the sci-fi movie The Day After Tomorrow. It is a network of currents that carry water and heat from ocean to ocean. In the movie, the Conveyor Belt stopped and threw the world's weather into chaos.

The sun's conveyor belt is a current, not of water, but of electrically-conducting gas. It flows in a loop from the sun's equator to the poles and back again. Just as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt controls weather on Earth, this solar conveyor belt controls weather on the sun. Specifically, it controls the sunspot cycle.

Solar physicist David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center (NSSTC) explains: "First, remember what sunspots are--tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun's inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a 'corpse' of weak magnetic fields."

"The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The 'corpses' are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun's magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface." Presto—new sunspots!

All this happens with massive slowness. "It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop," says Hathaway. The speed varies "anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast)."

When the belt is turning "fast," it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: "The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996," says Hathaway. "Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011."

Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.

"History shows that big sunspot cycles 'ramp up' faster than small ones," he says. "I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011."

Who's right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.

s10 again wrote:Oh yes the 11 year solar cycle. Whats the big deal been going on since before recorded time.

HenryJ wrote:Well , "the big deal is..." The tidal currents of the sun are in a 40 year cycle. This cycle and the next solar max are set to align. That could mean more than we have seen since sputnik was launched.
How reliant were we on electronics, satellites, cell phones back then?
Things have changed quite a bit. Do you have a UPS for your computer? Do you still have a corded phone that does not rely upon the electrical power to work?
Stores close their doors when their power is out. Not many can write receipts these days.
How prepared are people going to be if this storm pans out.
There is all sorts of terrestrial storm preparation. What is being done in preparation for this one?